Investors following short-term macro strategies should consider selling AUD/NZD this week , advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.
A couple of risk events are ahead for the AUD/NZD cross. The RBA board Minutes (Tues) will be worth attention to see whether the RBA retains a weak easing bias. As for NZ Q3 CPI (Wed) , we are slightly above consensus , looking for 0.8% q/q (consensus: 0.7%) ," Barclays says as a rationale behind this call.
"Meanwhile , China’s September data set (Friday) will likely provide a more mixed picture for the AUD. We expect a slight pullback in y/y industrial production growth after the surprising jump in August , but see fixed asset investment growth edging up further given the government’s stabilisation measures. We expect consumption to remain robust , in part due to a boost from the mid-Autumn festival. Q3 GDP growth is like to rise to 7.7% y/y , up from 7.5% in Q2 ," Barclays adds.
"Overall , we see the risk to AUD/NZD to be tilted towards downside ," Barclays projects.
Read more: http://www.efxnews.com/story/21188/barclays-trade-week-sell-audnzd-rba-minutes-nz-cpi
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